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Novel method for interrogating receiver operating characteristic curves for prognostic tests

Disease prevalence is rarely explicitly considered in the early stages of the development of novel prognostic tests. Rather, researchers use the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) as the keymetric to gauge and report predictive performance ability. Because this statistic does not account for disease prevalence, proposed tests may not appropriately address clinical requirements. This ultimately impedes the translation of prognostic tests into clinical practice.

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